Updated on May 6, 2024 10:16:16 AM EDT
There is no relevant economic data set for release today. With few relevant news headlines over the weekend, we are seeing more or less an extension of Friday’s post-Employment report rally carry into this morning’s session. If you saw an afternoon improvement to rates Friday, you likely are seeing little change in this morning’s pricing.
In fact, the week has only one monthly report in addition to a couple of Treasury auctions that may affect rates during afternoon hours midweek. We also have plenty of Fed speaking appearances and more corporate earnings to watch this week. Don’t be surprised to see some pressure in bonds and mortgage pricing following such a quick and strong rally, assuming there are no major surprises in this week’s activities. By no means are we indicating a reversal of last week’s improvements, but without some big news to fuel the rally further bond traders may adjust holdings (sell) to lock in some of last week’s profits.
We only have Fed speeches to watch the first few days. There is at least one speech scheduled each day of the week. The current calendar doesn’t show Chairman Powell making one, but with so little else coming this week, their words may have a stronger impact on trading than normal even if there are no major surprises.
Overall, Wednesday is the best candidate for most active day for rates due to the 10-year Treasury Note auction and several Fed speeches scheduled. The calmest day may be tomorrow unless something unexpected happens. We should see a relatively calm week compared to others recently, but the markets can still get active without notice. Therefore, proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.
©Mortgage Commentary 2024